“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” Week 45 of 2024 was one of these weeks. On Tuesday, Nov. 5, Donald J. Trump became president-elect, the German government imploded, and the world appeared as if it could just experience another episode of democratic backsliding. For liberal people, this has been a very hard week. But I believe not all hope is lost. I earn a living analyzing political systems (primarily the U.S. one), and I believe to see a few silver linings here and there. In the end, while things did indeed turn darker this week, I strongly believe in the self-healing capabilities of societies, even if it takes a while.
So especially if you feel hopeless, maybe I can provide you with a few rays of light.
Silver Linings After Election Day
First, it is important to remember that the presidential election was not the only election on Tuesday. The U.S. traditionally elects the president, all 435 representatives in the House, and about 33 senators all on the same day. Now you may think, “but that’s even worse — the Democrats lost the Senate and the Republicans kept in control of the House!” and I agree that it’s not the outcome we have wished for. But it helps not to give too much weight to the president. Even though the president is the most illustrous and visible part of the U.S. government, he can barely do things without consulting anyone.
Indeed, there are a few reasons to hope here. First, this constellation is anything but novel. In the history of the U.S., there were many legislative sessions in which one party (Democrats and Republicans alike) controlled both chambers of Congress and the Oval Office. In none of these situations did any party upend democracy in the U.S. as we know it. And I am faithful that it won’t happen this time, too.
The primary reason why I am this hopeful is that the institutions in the U.S. are still pretty strong; stronger than we may think. Now, of course they did suffer under Trump’s first presidency. And there will be blood, undoubtedly. But I think that the institutional arrangements will prove very hard to bite through, even for the most determined Musk-Husks out there. In the end, Trump can’t do much when Congress doesn’t pass legislation, and Congress is not dominated by fanatic Christian fascists. There are still Republicans who deserve that label, and while I don’t agree with their policy views, we agree in the fundamental value of democracy. Party defection is common in the U.S., so it is highly likely that the most egregious bills will be killed by those Republicans who did not yet lose their mind. (I’m currently working on a paper on party defection in U.S. Congress, but I don’t have any results to share, yet.)
Also, dismantling the various agencies will likely prove harder than the Trump campaign is portraying it right now. The U.S. outsources almost all their regulatory power to agencies and gives them a strong mandate. Reducing – let alone revoking – this mandate will be a difficult process (because, again, it requires enacting a bill, which needs support from all Republicans), and replacing the upper echelons of the agencies’ staff does not suddenly make the entire agency fall in line with wishes to erect a theocracy. Unless a large majority of federal workers suddenly decide to lose their backbone, the Trump administration will quickly learn what the term “malicious compliance” really means. Lastly, even if he tries to deny it, Trump requires the federal agencies. Because Trump and his allies want to regulate things, too.
Appeal to Reason
In the past days, I have talked to many colleagues and friends, and I have read many takes on the election, from lukewarm to hot. And one thing has become very apparent: many are very cynical, and it is hard to objectively think about what will happen now. Many seem to be in a state of shock. Seeing dystopias instead of “envisioning real utopias” (Erik O. Wright) is much easier and feels better in these days. I get that. I did that, too, in the days after the election. But at some point we have to move on and analyze what will happen without sourness in our tone.
Some of the arguments that I have heard over the past week are just wrong, or at the very least very unlikely. Analyzing dystopian possibilities won’t help. Now, I do not mean to diminish the danger this new government poses to (especially pregnant) women. I do not mean to ignore the incels that are now proudly shouting “Your body, my choice” all over the swamp that Twitter has become. I do not mean to belittle the dangers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses as the proposed head of the FDA. And I do not mean to hide the fact that Elon’s proposed new “Department of Government Efficiency” (like, what the fuck, bro) is a mere thin veil over a broad agenda to enrich himself and his cronies, and make U.S. workers pay for his tech endeavors.
All of these threats are real and pose a danger to women, LGBTQI*, people of color, and various other minorities. But. I want to emphasize that reality often turns out less evil than we think. Society is much more resilient than we expect. Now, it can certainly turn into full-fledged fascism, but honestly, I don’t think it will. I may be wrong. But I do doubt it.
First, in several states, people have voted to keep abortion access for women. Would a fully brainwashed nation do that? Unlikely. Then, many Trump voters were clear that they voted the way they did purely for economic reasons. We may not agree with their reasoning, but we should always remember – now more than ever – that those groups who actively work towards establishing the United States of Jesus are still in the minority. They are a very loud minority, but a minority nonetheless. Many Trump voters may have a weird thought process, but they are not the ones plotting big schemes to subjugate women to men and travel several hundred years back in time. They may have bought this together with whatever economic havoc Trump will wreak next, but they didn’t care all that much about such issues. Again, I don’t want to make a value judgement as to Trump-voters’ morality, just trying to spread hope in these dark times.
I already hear some of my colleagues interjecting that I forget about the high levels of polarization in the U.S. And indeed, many millennials are actively breaking up with their parents over their voting decision. Families are breaking apart, and Thanksgiving dinners this year will be very lonely. But we should not forget that even the political science literature is not entirely certain where polarization occurs, how strong it is, and what it means. Just because scholars have been pounding the polarization drum for three decades at this point doesn’t mean that it is the single defining factor for politics in one of the largest democracies on the planet. Also, for every millennial announcing that they broke up with their Trump-voting family, there are several who are currently probably talking with them and making them understand that this is not okay. I don’t believe that those voters – even though they voted for Trump – will just accept every egregious overreach these people do. Remember that many voted for Trump and to keep abortion access in their states.
Next, a few additional words on the institutions. I mentioned that institutions (especially regulatory agencies) are more powerful than it may seem. Trump is very adamant in letting us know that federal agencies are bad. But the louder someone is, the more likely they know, deep inside, that it won’t be all that easy. I’m a German. We know bureaucracy. And we also know that bureaucracy is among the most tectonically stable materials on the planet. Trying to reduce bureaucracies or make them less relevant always runs the risk of them simply falling back to malicious compliance.
Now, obviously the U.S. doesn’t have the caste of bureaucrats that we have in Europe, and it’s easier to fire federal employees than here. But these agencies are still institutions. Also, Trump and his cronies already run against the problem that they, too, want to regulate things. Just not the things that are currently regulated. And if they want to regulate, they need the support of agencies. And if they start mass-firing federal employees in the OSHA, FDA, or other agencies, it will be harder to get them to regulate for you. This is what I mean when I say: institutions are more resilient than we think. It’s not as easy as some doomsayers are portraying it right now.
So once more, do not lose hope:
- Trump voters are not automatically evil, even if you hate what they did
- Republicans are likely to exercise more vote defection, killing the most egregious bill proposals entering Congress
- Institutions won’t be easy prey for the Trump administration
What Happens Next?
The next weeks will be very interesting from a scientific perspective. Trump will slowly start to nominate people for various agencies and start filling up his government with yes-men. Observers are already discussing and analyzing his choices, exposing the utter incompetence he is starting to pack. Then, on January 3rd, the new Congress will constitute itself and start to assess the electoral college votes. And finally, on January 20th, Trump will be inaugurated. And then, he will likely start executing his plans.
We will certainly see parts of “Project 2025” being executed, the Heritage Foundation’s take on The Handmaid’s Tale. But we will also see Trump’s erratic wishes being implemented. And sometimes, these will counteract the more evil Christian fundamentalist’s plans. We will see the Trump administration try to declaw federal agencies. We will see them narrow down their mandates. We will see them cutting the budget.
But what we will also see are roadblocks. Republicans defecting their party line, majority whips sweating over how to build coalitions. We will see civil society organizations rally the troops. We will see advocacy groups throwing sticks into Trump’s wheels. And we will witness the pace at which Trump is progressing, allowing us to more accurately project what damage his administration can do in four years.
Democracy is Work
This leads me to the final section of this essay. Democracy is work. And it is now that we all have to become more active in doing democracy. Ernst-Wolfgang Böckenförde once said that “[t]he liberal, secularized state lives by prerequisites which it cannot guarantee itself.” Those prerequisites have to be created and maintained by civil society, more so if the government is unwilling to take responsibility for democracy. This means organizing, canvassing, advocating, and in general political work. It is something that I have to consider doing more on the other side of the Atlantic, too, after the landslide victories of the AfD in Germany.
The days in which governments would maintain the prerequisites for democracy as a bulwark against Communism in the East are over. The citizens themselves have to put up the work. And yes, democracy is work. The sooner we realize this, the less work it will be. But with every Trump elected anywhere on the world, it will become a bit more work.
I think that many of us have felt, or currently feel, something that can be described with Weltschmerz: a concept “describing the feeling experienced by an individual who believes that reality can never satisfy the expectations of the mind, resulting in ‘a mood of weariness or sadness about life arising from the acute awareness of evil and suffering’.” It is healthy to accept any feelings one has.
But I believe there are a lot of reasons not to maintain this feeling. Instead, we must act. So that Trump and his boy band of Christian fundamentalists does not win. I will do my part and keep taps on what Congress is now doing in Trump’s second term.
Rage, rage, against the dying of the light. — Dylan Thomas
