International observers these days can usually point to the United States in demonstrating how anti-democrats winning elections can hurt democracies. Donald Trump is a prime example of how the lack of official responsibility (“staatsmännische Verantwortung”) can lead to chaos, suffering, and confusion. After announcing and almost starting several trade wars within just ten days into the new administration, yesterday a deadly crash between an airplane and a helicopter over Washington, D.C. has been widely cited as the first casualties of Trump’s style of government. While we do not know exactly what led to the crash (the investigation is ongoing), commenters have pointed to Trump’s gutting of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the hiring freeze, and other damages his executive orders have already caused.
But German observers in particular need not look across the pond to see democracy under attack. Just a few minutes ago, one of the biggest thrillers of German politics in recent years has concluded with a bruise. A controversial law, introduced by the conservative faction under chairman Friedrich Merz, that was described as a pure act of provocation, has been voted down by the German Bundestag. While voting on bills in parliaments is nothing extraordinary (and it’s almost always excruciatingly boring to watch), this one was different because of the context. In this article, I write down the thoughts I had throughout the week on what this process might mean for Germany, and why I believe democracy just got out of a very nasty situation with a black eye.
The “Zustrombegrenzungsgesetz”
The law itself is nothing too particularly interesting. Appropriately German-named “Zustrombegrenzungsgesetz” (roughly “A law to limit migratory streams”), the law demanded stricter means to curb immigration into the country. It contained the usual conservative and some racist undertones of “criminal migrants,” “illegal aliens,” and the like. It was not necessary (the government pro tempore has in the past three years passed a lot of laws curbing migration), and, more specifically, it was not agreed upon before by the large parties in parliament (Social democrats, Greens, and Conservatives). Instead, while formally following due process, the conservative faction introduced the bill out of the blue, dumbfounding the other parties. And, to add insult to injury, the conservative faction also, again without any warning, introduced a so-called “Entschließungsantrag” (a form of resolution demanding the government do something without legal power) that contained roughly similar language. The resolution has been approved by parliament on Wednesday, while the bill was voted down.
With this initiative, the conservative faction has broken a promise the democratic parties in the Bundestag have made to each other: Until the federal elections on February 23, nobody introduces laws that haven’t been discussed before the breaking of the government at the end of last year. This promise has even been repeated by Friedrich Merz himself, chairman of the conservative faction, who holds considerable power over the actions of his party. By introducing this piece of legislation last minute, he has upset everyone but one — the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the officially court-labelled “right-wing extremist” party.
A Demonstration of Power
In my personal opinion, introducing this law was a mere demonstration of power by Friedrich Merz, the designated candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections. He knew beforehand that he would not change any law (the resolution has no binding power, and the actual law was already announced to be voted down in the other legislative chamber, the Bundesrat). He also knew that the other democratic parties (specifically, Greens, Social Democrats, and the Left) would not vote in favor of this law. But he also knew that the contents of this law would be very appealing to the right-wing extremists.
Here’s what I think happened: Friedrich Merz felt powerless at least since the 1990s (!) — he repeatedly tried to become chairman of his party, but always lost to Angela Merkel, and he repeatedly tried to become candidate for chancellor, but lost to various other figures. Now that he finally is in a position of power, he wants to get as much as possible. The more he does while he is chancellor (something that is very likely to happen on February 23rd), the more his name will be mentioned in the history books. However, as Gramsci has told us, one can rule either by consent, or coercion. Consent has been notoriously difficult to achieve in recent years both because the electorate is deeply divided, and because the various parties have incompatible answers to the pressing economic and societal issues of the times.
This means that — and I believe personally that the law was the purest expression of this to date — Merz apparently has chosen the path of coercion. He wants to ensure that his plans as a chancellor face as little resistance as possible, and the easiest way of achieving this is by having a pressure point. And that pressure point is the AfD.
Governing by Coercion
I do believe that Friedrich Merz does not want to govern alongside the AfD. I do believe him that he appreciates democracy. But it is also clear what he just did. When on Wednesday there was a large debate on the proposed resolution, conservative speakers have often explained that “the AfD voting for it doesn’t make it the wrong thing to do!” in an attempt to produce a frame in which the CDU was “forced” to introduce this resolution, and now “suffers” just as much under the result as all other parties. And then, the entire conservative faction — except for a single representative — voted for it. Alongside the AfD.
And now, today, in act two of this political thriller, the actual bill was up for vote. And they lost — but a lot of conservatives still voted in favor of the bill. Alongside the AfD. Again, remember that everyone in the plenary room knew since Wednesday, even before the first vote, that nothing of that would become law. It was a pure symbolic demonstration of power by a single man.
And I believe he achieved exactly what he wanted. I believe Merz never expected the actual bill to get through. I think all he wanted was that the (again, non-binding) resolution was passed. After that, he got what he wanted.
Because now every party in the building knows that the conservatives are happy to use votes from the right-wing extremists to pass laws. Vice versa, this essentially communicates: “Do what I want, or I will propose legislation that ‘those over there’ also will vote for. And nobody here wants to pass legislation with the votes of the right-wing, right? So be quiet, and now write these three things into the bill.” (Nota Bene: It was very interesting to watch basically all conservatives speaking only of “those over there,” barely naming the AfD by its name; almost as if it’s a forbidden word to them.)
The conservatives have shown that they will go all the way to happily accepting votes by the AfD if it helps them get a majority. So, if everyone agrees they do not want to pass laws with the AfD, they will have to budge. Because the conservatives will get a majority in the next elections such that they can pass bills either with the other democratic parties, or just with the AfD. That’s basically a certainty at this point. And because the resolution on Wednesday wasn’t binding, the conservatives can always weasel out of the responsibility by arguing that “nothing bad happened.”
However, the symbol has been set.
In a few hours, the final meeting of the 20th Bundestag session will conclude. Which means the last thing from this session to be remembered is this vote. And nothing can diminish its symbolic power. The bill that has been downvoted today looks almost like a mere reassurance in case too many conservatives on Wednesday had voted against the resolution.
Quo Vadis, Res Publica? Et tu, CDU?
Where do we go from here? I don’t think democracy went down in flames today in Germany. But I do believe that we have come one step further to having right-wing extremists determine legislation once more in this country. The precedent has been set. From today, everyone knows that the conservatives are willing to buy in to a majority that is only possible because of the AfD.
Everyone now will fear the conservatives, and is much more attuned to not doing anything that may make a chancellor Merz seek votes from the far-right as opposed to the democratic parties. “You want more clean energy? Then give me one nuclear power plant.” Or how about “You want to make it easier for work migrants to come to Germany? Then give me 20,000 asylum seekers to extradite.” All of these dirty deals are now on the table.
But, more so, now that the precedent has been set, what stops the liberals from banding together with the AfD? It wouldn’t be the first time in German history that liberals help the far-right. The Weimar Republic can tell a tale. Now, all bets are off.
And all of this because of a single person. I strongly believe that Friedrich Merz has been hurt one time too often. By being defeated by Angela Merkel. By being defeated by Armin Laschet. And by being defeated by Markus Söder. And I believe that this has killed something inside of him. I believe that Merz might really be a nice person, personally. But I believe that his own past, and how he felt treated by his own party, has turned him into an ice-cold realpolitiker. His goal is power. I don’t know if he will be reconciled if he becomes chancellor and can govern for an entire four-year period. Or if he wants to stay in power for at least as long as Angela Merkel (four four-year periods). And I don’t know what he is willing to sacrifice to get there.
No, democracy did not die today. But Friedrich Merz has placed the first knife wound. The Ides of March are upon us, but they will be different from 2,000 years ago. And the first strike has been delivered.